Fans might expect Bafana Bafana to easily beat Guinea in their opening 2027 Africa Cup of Nations qualifier at Orlando Stadium on Saturday, but history suggests an altogether different scenario, with the West Africans traditionally among their toughest opponents.
Pitso Mosimane takes to the dugout for the first time in the clash, and with only one qualification spot available from this pool, which also includes co-hosts Kenya and Eritrea, there is little room for error … especially at home.
Bafana have met Guinea four times before and have a single win in that time to go with two defeats and a draw.
That victory could be considered a hollow one as it came at the African Nations Championship finals last year, a now-defunct competition where nations could only select home-based players.
It meant Guinea had none of their overseas-based stars, such as Borussia Dortmund striker Serhou Guirassy, and, to be honest, there is a debate over whether it should even be in the record books given the restrictions on team selection.
The teams first met at the 2006 AFCON finals during the disastrous Bafana campaign under coach Ted Dumitru, when they lost all three group-stage games without scoring a goal.
Guinea beat them 2-0, though both goals came in the final 12 minutes.
Guinea won a friendly clash in Atteridgeville 1-0 two years later during the equally disastrous reign of Brazilian coach Joel Santana, and the teams also played to a 0-0 friendly draw in Belgium under Hugo Broos, though Bafana really should have won that day.
Then came the CHAN win as Neo Maema and Thabiso Kutumela were on target as Bafana finally scored against Guinea at the fourth attempt.
The qualification competition for the 2027 Africa Cup of Nations takes place from September 2026 to March 2027. The 48 teams have been drawn into 12 groups, with the top two in each advancing to the 24-team finals. Hosts Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda qualify automatically, but are still playing in the qualifiers; only one other team will advance from their groups.
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Bafana have met 49 African nations in the past, and only six hold winning head-to-head records against South Africa. Guinea are one of those.
The other five are Nigeria, Zambia, Senegal, Tunisia and Mauritania.
The fact that Bafana have managed only two goals in four meetings means they have their joint-lowest scoring rate against Guinea of any African country they have faced at least four times, alongside Tanzania, against whom they have also scored twice in four encounters.
South Africa's 25% win rate against Guinea is also among their lowest against African opposition. Only Mauritania, Nigeria, Algeria, Senegal and Sierra Leone have a lower percentage, while Côte d'Ivoire and Tanzania share the same figure.
Bafana will still expect to win at home, but this will certainly be no easy ride.