Match News and Form
Carlos Alcaraz’s reputation for big match supremacy reached another level after a sensational five-set comeback over Alexander Zverev in the Australian Open semi-finals.
He appeared on course for another routine straight sets win before an unexpected fitness scare, later confirmed as cramps, flipped the momentum. Zverev surged back, levelled the match, and even served for victory in the decider. Yet Alcaraz found something special once again, producing a comeback that echoed his unforgettable five-set turnaround against Jannik Sinner in last year’s French Open final.
Throughout the fortnight, the outright odds rarely added up, with the world number one playing at a level far superior to Sinner's, yet still being priced as the second favourite; fresh off his US Open triumph, the Spaniard consistently looked the most complete player in the field. Reality has now finally caught up as he enters Sunday’s showdown as the clear favourite. Victory would complete a Career Grand Slam and make him the youngest man in the Open Era to win all four majors.
As if Novak Djokovic’s legacy needed more defining moments, he delivered another masterclass by knocking out two-time defending champion Sinner in the semi-finals.
Priced as a massive underdog in a way rarely seen for him in over two decades, the odds felt almost disrespectful and clearly struck a nerve. Djokovic played like a man on a mission, reasserting his status as the undisputed king of Melbourne. He produced a trademark mental and physical grind, saving 16 break points overall and a perfect eight out of eight in the deciding set to outlast and outthink the tournament favourite.
This result was a clear reminder that Djokovic’s only real battle at this stage is against time, not belief, skill, or heart. Strip away Alcaraz and Sinner, and he would likely still be collecting multiple Grand Slams every season, such is his command over the rest of the tour on the biggest stages. Even against the two defining stars of this era, he continues to compete better than anyone else.
Now, a long-awaited window opens to chase a 25th major. If he were to win it at 38 by beating Sinner and Alcaraz in back-to-back matches, it would stand as the greatest achievement of his career and arguably one of the greatest feats in sporting history.
Head-to-Head
Djokovic holds a narrow 5-4 edge in the official head-to-head, though the rivalry levels out at 5-5 when exhibition events are counted.
The broader picture underlines just how evenly matched this matchup has been. They have contested four title-deciding clashes, with each player claiming two victories. Alcaraz famously ended Djokovic’s long reign on Wimbledon Centre Court in 2023, before Djokovic struck back by capturing Olympic gold in Paris.
Their most recent meeting, however, swung heavily Alcaraz’s way, as he produced a dominant performance in the US Open semi-finals.
Stats & Facts
Carlos Alcaraz has already established himself as a big-match force, boasting a remarkable 14-2 record in Slam and Masters finals. The first of those defeats came against Novak Djokovic at the Cincinnati Masters 2023.
The Spaniard has also been ice-cold in five-setters at Grand Slams, winning 15 of his 16 such matches. His only loss came against Matteo Berrettini at the Australian Open 2022.
Novak Djokovic’s Australian Open record borders on untouchable. A 10-time champion, he is a flawless 10-0 in finals at Melbourne Park.
This marks the second time Djokovic has faced a higher-ranked opponent in an Australian Open final. He beat Stefanos Tsitsipas in straight sets in 2023.
In Grand Slam finals against higher-ranked players, he holds a 4-4 record, with the most recent match ending in a defeat against Alcaraz at Wimbledon 2023.
Betting Analysis
Both players know each other inside out, so the tactical preparation on either side should be spot on.
The stakes are high, and the Spaniard has shown past vulnerability in high-pressure moments against Djokovic, most notably the full-body cramps he suffered during their French Open semi-final in 2023.
Djokovic, meanwhile, has repeatedly shown that Alcaraz is a relatively more comfortable matchup for him than Sinner, finding ways to get into the Spaniard’s head, force errors, and disrupt his rhythm, as seen at the Australian Open quarter-finals last year and the Olympic final in 2024.
Still, Alcaraz has operated a clear level above everyone else in Melbourne this fortnight. Even allowing for Djokovic’s greatness and his flawless record in Australian Open finals, Alcaraz looks the fresher and more dominant force right now. Trusting him to cover the -4.5 games and -1.5 sets handicap feels justified, with straight sets also standing out as a strong value option.
Alcaraz in 2026
Best result: First tournament
Best result on outdoor hard courts: First tournament
Record: 6-0
Record in the last 10 matches: 9-1
Record on outdoor hard courts: 6-0
Record against top 10: 2-0 (career 54-24)
Record in Grand Slam finals: 0-0 (career 6-1)
Record in finals: 0-0 (career 24-8)
Alcaraz at the Australian Open
Career record: 17-4
Best result: Final (2026)
Last year's result: Quarter-finals
Record in finals: 0-0
Road to the final: Walton: 6-3, 7-6, 6-2, Hanfmann: 7-6, 6-3, 6-2, Moutet (32): 6-2, 6-4, 6-1, Paul (19): 7-6, 6-4, 7-5, De Minaur (6): 7-5, 6-2, 6-1, Zverev (3): 6-4, 7-6, 6-7, 6-7, 7-5.
Djokovic in 2026
Best results: First tournament
Best results on outdoor hard courts: First tournament
Record: 5-0
Record in the last 10 matches: 9-1
Record on outdoor hard courts: 5-0
Record against top 10: 2-0 (career 265-120)
Record in Grand Slam finals: 0-0 (career 24-13)
Record in finals: 0-0 (career 100-43)
Djokovic at the Australian Open
Career record: 104-10
Best result: Title (2008, 2011-13, 2015-16, 2019-21, 2023)
Last year's result: Semi-finals
Record in finals: 10-0
Road to the final: Martinez: 6-3, 6-2, 6-2, Maestrelli: 6-3, 6-2, 6-2, Van de Zandschulp: 6-3, 6-4, 7-6, Mensik (16): (w/o), Musetti (5): 4-6, 3-6, 3-1 ret., Sinner (2): 3-6, 6-3, 4-6, 6-4, 6-4.