Mere

The numbers behind Nottingham Forest's vital Premier League clash against Man United

The Trent End prior to the Premier League match between Nottingham Forest and Manchester City at the City Ground
The Trent End prior to the Premier League match between Nottingham Forest and Manchester City at the City GroundPaul Bonser / Zuma Press / Profimedia
Tuesday night's fixture at the City Ground between Nottingham Forest and Manchester United is important for both sides though for entirely different reasons.

The Tricky Trees can consolidate their third position in the table by taking all three points in what would be the first league double over the Red Devils since the days of Brian Clough back in 1991/92 - the final season before the advent of the Premier League.

Forest won this exact fixture 2-1 last season, and the last time they managed wins against United at the City Ground in consecutive league campaigns came even further back in 1988/89 and 1989/90.

Ruben Amorim's side are looking to win back-to-back Premier League games for the first time this season after their 3-0 victory against Leicester City, and back-to-back away league wins for the first time since securing three in a row in February 2024. 

Incredibly, United are one of only three sides yet to win successive Premier League fixtures this season, along with relegation-threatened Ipswich Town and Southampton.

Recent history doesn't bode well for the Red Devils either as they've lost their last two Premier League games against Forest, which is more than they had in the 13 games prior (W10 D2 L1).

Furthermore, the hosts are unbeaten in their last eight home league games, winning six of them, which is as many wins as they managed in their previous 24 games at the City Ground (W6 D7 L11).

Nuno Espirito Santo has restored his battered reputation

For Nuno Espirito Santo, 2024/25 is turning into a vintage campaign for him and Forest, whilst also restoring his battered reputation.

The 51-year-old's ill-fated spell at Tottenham Hotspur looked to have made him persona non grata on English shores, with a Saudi Pro League sojourn at Al Ittihad the next stop on his managerial career.

Taking over from Steve Cooper at Forest, Nuno just about managed to keep their heads above water, eventually finishing the 2023/24 campaign in 17th position.

This season, both manager and players have really shown what they're made of with away wins at both Anfield and Old Trafford particular highlights.

Striker, Chris Wood, has been in sensational form, and his 18 goals, as well as three assists, places him way out in front as top scorer. His recent injury only gives him a 25% chance of playing in this one, though, which could prove to be a huge advantage for United.

Morgan Gibbs-White also faces a late fitness test, as he looks to continue his good form and potentially provide an assist in a third successive Forest fixture. The only players to do just that for the club in the Premier League are Steve Stone (April 1995), Ian Woan (November 1995), Gibbs-White himself (April 2024), and Anthony Elanga (January 2025).

Callum Hudson-Odoi is one of three players with five goals (Gibbs-White and Elanga are the others), two of which were the game winners against Liverpool and Manchester City. Talk about the man for the big occasion, and a player his teammates might be looking to in order to provide something special.

In terms of the engine room, Elliot Anderson continues to drive the team forward. His 1,107 passes are the second highest in the Forest squad, and with 913 of those finding their target, he has a superb 82.5% accuracy.

His 172 ball recoveries are only four less than Ola Aina's 176, the most from an outfield player at Forest, therefore, if United want to take control of this game and earn at least a point, they need to shut the 22-year-old midfielder down at the earliest opportunity.

The one ray of light United have is captain, Bruno Fernandes. The Portuguese continues to lead the way and has scored or assisted (3G, 3A) in each of his last four Premier League games for the club. 

He was on target in the reverse fixture earlier this season, a match where he also hit the bar with a ferocious free-kick.

His 799 passes in the final third are more than double the next United player on the list, too (Diogo Dalot, 392), but the squad can't continue to rely on the 30-year-old to keep digging them out of trouble.

When looking at the squad as a whole in terms of passing, they're far from shabby, with only four players dropping below 80% accuracy and two of those are Marcus Rashford and Altay Bayindir.

To that end, opposition teams should be getting played off the park, however, defensive mistakes and a lack of presence up front have combined to make life difficult for Amorim.

Woeful return from Man United's strikers needs addressing

For example, goals are a striker's currency and it's about time Rasmus Hojlund (three goals in all competitions), Joshua Zirkzee (five goals) and Alejandro Garnacho (eight goals) cashed in. Even Rashford managed six goals - and he left the club on February 2nd.

To put United's woes in front of goal into a little more context, Garnacho scored his first Premier League goal in 17 appearances against Leicester, while Hojlund's goal in the same game was his first in his last 14 matches in the competition.

Rasmus Hojlund goal sequence vs Leicester City
Rasmus Hojlund goal sequence vs Leicester CityOpta by Stats Perform

Garnacho has also never scored in successive appearances in the English top-flight, while Hojlund last did so in May 2024.

Both the Argentinian and the Dane might need to think about timing their runs in behind a little better too. Only the injured Amad Diallo was caught offside more (14 times) than Hojlund's 11 occasions and Garnacho's 10. Delaying by just a split second could well be the difference in terms of goals scored.

The last goalless draw in this fixture came way back in March 1988, with only five matches between United and Forest ending 0-0 since the first game between them back in October 1892 (when United were known as Newton Heath).

Given that both teams at least try to play an open and expansive attacking game, we should expect an exciting 90 minutes with United forcing the pace and Forest hitting them on the counter - something they've done with remarkable aplomb so far this season.

Even if United won, and then did so in their final eight games, they could still only earn a maximum of 54 points, which will be their worst final points tally in the Premier League era (the current record is 58 from 2021/22).

Amorim needs at least six wins from the last nine games of the season in order to not end the season with the lowest amount of victories since 1992/93 too.

Three more losses this season would make it the most for United in a Premier League campaign, so there's a lot more than three points riding on the outcome of this game for the Red Devils.

Jason Pettigrove
Jason PettigroveFlashscore