The worst-case scenario feared after seeing him leave the court has come true: Jimmy Butler III has suffered a torn ACL and will miss the rest of the season, with next year’s campaign also in serious doubt. It’s the worst possible news for the Golden State Warriors.
As usual (even if it’s perhaps a bit less true this season), the Western Conference is stacked with talent, and while the Warriors were close to the top 6 - and thus a direct playoff spot - the injury to one of their two leaders could cost them their season.
The impact was clear from their very first game without “Buckets,” on Wednesday night. Completely lost, the Warriors gave up their highest point total of the season against the Raptors: 145 points, and that’s without overtime! Of course, it’s just one game, but it’s hardly a sign of better days ahead.
A risky bet?
By the numbers, everything is in the red. The Warriors’ offensive rating drops from 118.8 to 108.3 when he’s not on the floor. The defensive rating goes from 114.0 to 115.4, but the net rating is the real shocker: -7.1 without him, compared to 4.8 with him!
He’s only missed seven games this season, but Golden State lost five of those, including some against the Kings and the Heat, both play-in level teams.
But beyond his play, his leadership was highly valued, and was probably the main reason the Warriors took the risk to bring him in, even though he’d just been suspended by Miami, ending a story that had taken them to the NBA Finals. Known for his fiery personality (or as a winner, depending on who you ask), Butler wasn’t arriving with everything handed to him.
He joined the team of one of the greatest players of the 21st century: Stephen Curry. And it was to make the most of the final years of the greatest player in franchise history that Golden State brought in a star sidekick last February - a franchise player who led his team to the NBA Finals in 2023, clearly closer to the end than the beginning, but whom the front office believed could become a luxury second option.
His impact was felt immediately, as he delivered a monster performance to help the team get through the play-in against the Grizzlies. But injuries quickly caught up with him, and he paid the price in the playoffs. So there was already doubt about whether he’d be the one to give this Warriors generation a shot at one last ring.
With Steph Curry at 37, Butler at 36, and Draymond Green at 35, this looked like a last-chance season. Sure, there’s one more left, since the trio (who will cost a staggering $140 million next season) are under contract until 2027. But “Buckets” will need time to recover from such a serious injury - if he ever does. And the Warriors will soon have some tough decisions to make.
The Jonathan Kuminga situation
Butler needs to be replaced, but it’s hard to imagine the Warriors trading him now that he’s injured. For one, when their core inevitably moves on, they’ll need their draft picks.
They would have to attach one or two picks to Butler’s contract to make a trade palatable. But above all, Golden State never tried to trade Klay Thompson, even though he spent two years sidelined with major injuries (a loyalty that went unrewarded, as he left at the first opportunity). So it’s hard to see the franchise doing that with Butler.
On paper, though, the solution to limit the damage is already on the roster: Jonathan Kuminga. Drafted 7th in 2021, the Congolese forward won a championship in his rookie year and has grown in importance over time. But then things soured, for reasons that remain unclear.
Is he a player who refuses to follow any rules but his own? Or is it a coach who’s too demanding and not using him properly? Either way, Kuminga requested a trade and has a Team Option at the end of the season.
In the end, he’s only played 19 games this year, and just returned to action against the Raptors after sitting out 16 straight! He put up a solid performance in that tough loss (20 points on 7/10 shooting, leading the team in scoring).
The Warriors seemed ready to let him go, but this injury changes everything. It could give Kuminga a shot at redemption, with a role he’s never really had at Golden State: being one of Steph Curry’s true sidekicks. But one thing is clear: it won’t be enough to make the Warriors real contenders.
A tough decision
Golden State were already involved in plenty of trade rumors, and that’s only going to intensify. Dozens of players have been mentioned as possible targets, with Kuminga as a potential trade chip. The problem: they’re just under the second apron and absolutely don’t want to go over it.
The original plan was probably to trade Kuminga at the deadline for a technically superior player (DeMar DeRozan? Trey Murphy III?), even if it meant losing a first-round pick in the process.
At least then, Golden State could have assembled a pseudo Big Three with some hope for the playoffs, even if it still wouldn’t be enough to challenge the Thunder, for example. But at least the franchise would have shown some ambition.
Now, things are different. Butler is out, and whatever happens, Golden State won’t be a contender. At least not this season, unless they take a huge risk, like bringing in a certain player from Milwaukee. And there’s concern he won’t be ready for the start of next season either.
So, with the franchise’s stated goal of giving Steph Curry one last shot at a fifth NBA title, can they afford to keep “Buckets” until he recovers - if he ever does?
The trade deadline is set for February 4 at 21:00. Two more weeks to decide the franchise’s future. Do they sacrifice their draft capital and try to build one last strong team to satisfy the greatest player in their history, or play it safe, tweak the roster without taking a huge risk, and head into the playoffs with a smaller but healthier group?
That is the dilemma facing the Warriors’ front office, which has faced plenty of criticism lately and now has to make the right call - for this season and beyond…