Hawthorn v Adelaide (Friday, 7:40pm AEST)
In a game that’s considered to be 50-50 or close to by many, we’re searching for any possible advantage we can find to pick a winner - such as home ground advantage!
Friday night football graces Launceston with its presence and Hawthorn have won seven straight matches at their ‘home away from home’, most recently defeating the Giants by 12 points in Round 4 despite being down by 35 points at the first change.
Their Premiership credentials were rightfully questioned after a trilogy of losses to contenders Brisbane, Gold Coast and Collingwood, but they were strong against the Bulldogs last week.
Adelaide have a 2-3 record away from home this year, defeating Essendon and Sydney but losing away to Gold Coast, Fremantle and Collingwood, all three of whom join them and Hawthorn in the top-eight.
The Crows can’t dispute they got away with murder last week given Brisbane’s 0.8 final term but they remain blessed with many sharpshooters, going into this round with the league’s best kicking accuracy (54.1%) and highest points scored (101) per game.
It’s the side you can back with the most confidence in regards to goalkicking markets, and we’ve picked out Josh Rachele to get at least two on the board, which he has done in five of his last six games.
Match prediction: Hawthorn to win
Player prediction: Josh Rachele 2+ goals
Brisbane v GWS Giants (Saturday, 1:20pm AEST)
Still searching for that perfect four-quarter performance that they’ve rarely been able to produce this year, defending premiers Brisbane need to quickly put last week’s abomination behind them as they return to The Gabba to host a side also with questions to answer.
The sight of their opponents could stalk Giants players with nightmarish memories of their own 44-point collapse to Brisbane in last year’s semi-finals, further fuelling motivation to climb back towards the top four.
The frustrating inconsistency of both clubs makes picking a winner or a margin difficult but the total points handicap could be a tad on the high side considering the season averages for both sides, with the Lions and Giants seeing 163.8 and 160.7 total points per game in 2025 - well below the mark of 168.5.
Perhaps that’s why nine of Brisbane’s last ten matches at The Gabba finished under the main total points handicap, and yet the bookies may have not corrected for that enough here.
Both sides are in the top six for fewest disposals conceded per game so we’ll be cautious with the individual disposals markets and, in spite of our prediction about the total score, will instead look to Jake Riccardi to kick 2+ goals for a fourth straight match.
Match prediction: Under 168.5 total points
Player prediction: Jake Riccardi 2+ goals
West Coast v Carlton (Sunday, 6:10pm AEST)
The money men are expecting the final game of the round to be one of its most lopsided when West Coast set out to improve significantly on their 71-point Gather Round loss to Carlton in Adelaide, the fifth consecutive time they failed to cover the line against the Blues.
With 57% of games across the first 13 rounds falling short of the total points handicap, we continue to keep a close eye out for potential value on that front.
They have set a total of 167.5 for this game, which is going to require a lot of heavy lifting from Carlton considering their hosts are scoring just 68 points per match.
The Eagles in return are going for 105 points against per game but a lot of that has come from blowouts against some of the league’s heaviest scorers such as Geelong (116), Adelaide (128), Hawthorn (124) and Gold Coast (136).
Carlton put up 121 on the Eagles earlier this year but haven’t hit triple figures in any of their last six matches thanks to some middling kicking accuracy.
The Eagles are conceding more disposals per game than any other side but Richmond, so we can freely sink our teeth into the player disposals markets with confidence here.
You can get better odds across the board for Sam Walsh to rack up 30+ touches compared with his teammate George Hewett, and whilst Hewett has a slightly higher average this season (28 to 26), Walsh has hit 30+ on twice as many occasions.
If Carlton dominates the midfield battle as expected, these two could have a field day.
Match prediction: Under 167.5 total points
Player prediction: Sam Walsh 30+ disposals