This article contains affiliate links to advertisers. The analysis is our own. Gamble Aware 18+
Following the drama and excitement of the UEFA Champions League and Europa League matches played in midweek, we return to the Premier League. It’s gameweek 28, and there’s lots to hold your interest, with battle raging at both ends of the table. Arsenal remain top, five points clear of title rivals Manchester City, with Aston Villa a further five points behind in third.
At present, two teams are involved in the title race, with another six clubs in the running for a top-four finish. Man Utd start the weekend in fourth with 48 points, while AFC Bournemouth, in eighth, have 38 on the board. At the opposite end of the ladder, ten points separate Crystal Palace in 13th from West Ham in the relegation zone. There’s still all to play for.
Gameweek 28 opens on Saturday morning, with bottom club Wolves hosting a Villa side that’s struggling for consistency. Five EPL matches are scheduled for Saturday overnight, with the remaining four games settled on the opening day of March. Experienced football betting writer Frank Monkhouse returns with six data-led predictions and advice on where to find the best odds.
Bournemouth vs Sunderland, Saturday, 11:30pm AEDT
We begin a busy Saturday night at Dean Court, where the Cherries take on the Black Cats. Andoni Iraola’s hosts sit in mid-table, following an impressive unbeaten run. Bournemouth have won three and drawn two of their previous five, and they now line up against a Sunderland side with four defeats in the same period. We stick with the form team.
Sunderland arrive following a miserable run of form, losing each of their last three EPL games. Regis Le Bris watched his men score a 3-0 home win over Burnley in their first match of February, before losing 3-0 at Arsenal, 1-0 when hosting Liverpool, and saw Fulham leave with a well-deserved 3-1 victory. Confidence is at rock bottom as a result.
Sunderland have a decent record in this fixture, but they’ve conceded 33 goals already this term. That fragile defence leaked seven goals in their last three league games, with Bournemouth allowing only two in the same period. Follow our thinking and back the home team with the better defence and form that’s four places higher in the Premier League.
Tip: Bournemouth win @ 1.80 (bet365)
Bet explanation: The home team must win this match to land your bet.
Liverpool vs West Ham, Sunday, 2:00am AEDT
Moving to Anfield, we have a mouth-watering match as Liverpool prepare to host West Ham in the pick of the 3pm local time starts. Neither team has impressed so far, with the Reds outside the top four. The Hammers are involved in a relegation dogfight, battling hard to avoid finishing in the bottom three. Both respected clubs need all three points for very different reasons.
The latest form shows Liverpool have won each of their last two and three of four. The spare was a 2-1 defeat when Man City visited early in February. Since that narrow reverse, Arne Slot’s team have beaten Sunderland 1-0, Brighton 3-0, and Nottingham Forest 1-0. After scoring five and conceding none, they face a Hammers team with three for and one against.
Slot and Nuno Espirito Santo focus on making their teams difficult to score against. That gives us our bet, taking Saturday’s match to produce fewer than four goals. Backing under 3.5 landed in each of Liverpool’s February outings. That’s also true of West Ham’s games. The H2H shows that the last two meetings also ended with no more than three goals scored.
Tip: Under 3.5 goals @ 1.72 (bet365)
Bet explanation: Liverpool vs West Ham must produce fewer than four goals.
Leeds vs Man City, Saturday, 17:30 GMT
The third and final prediction on Saturday night comes when Leeds United and Man City clash before a sold-out Elland Road and a global TV audience. Daniel Farke’s men hold the home advantage and are unbeaten in three, but they are also the underdogs with all major Australian betting apps. Can they upset the odds and halt City’s five-game unbeaten run?
These teams served up a goalfest when meeting at the Etihad Stadium back in November. City won 3-2 that day, thanks to a double from Phil Foden. That thriller was the third meeting on the bounce where both teams have found the net at least once. The other results in that run were a 2-1 win for Man City and a 3-1 away victory when Pep Guardiola was last here.
The head-to-head suggests Leeds and Man City will score, and the recent form adds confidence to that view. A bet on BTTS landed in three of City’s four league games played this month. The locals ended 1-1 at Villa Park last time, after drawing 2-2 at Stamford Bridge, and beating Nottingham Forest 3-1 in their most recent match at Elland Road.
Tip: Both teams to score @ 1.66 (bet365)
Bet explanation: Both Leeds United and Man City must score at least one goal each.
Fulham vs Tottenham, Monday, 1:00am AEDT
Moving to Sunday night's four-match Premier League card, Tottenham hope to start March better than they finished February, avoiding defeat to a neighbour. Spurs suffered a painful 4-1 home loss to North London rivals, Arsenal, seven days ago. They now travel to Craven Cottage and a Fulham side that hammered Sunderland 3-1 at the Stadium of Light.
Despite the three points gained and that impressive scoreline, Fulham’s victory over the Black Cats ended a three-match losing streak. Tottenham’s loss to the Gunners means they dropped to 16th after three defeats in-a-row. Neither team has found consistency this season, and neither will trouble the prize places come the final tally. But who wins this one?
With these squads painfully low on confidence, we avoid picking sides. Instead, we play the total goals, trusting the trends and taking under 3.5 goals. That bet landed when Fulham beat Tottenham 2-1 on the road late last year. It would’ve also banked you a profit in each of the previous 11 meetings. That run stretches back to January 2019. More of the same?
Tip: Under 3.5 goals @ 1.44 (bet365)
Bet explanation: If Fulham vs Spurs ends with fewer than four goals scored by both teams combined, you’ll boost your betting balance.
Man Utd vs Crystal Palace, Monday, 1:00am AEDT
Manchester United play their second match of the week after beating Everton in Monday Night Football. The Red Devils welcome the Eagles to Old Trafford, with the visiting side winning two of their previous three. Palace were last seen in action beating Wolves. The EPL’s bottom club played over 30 minutes with 10 men and lost only to a 90th-minute goal.
Sunday will also be Crystal Palace’s second game of the week, after hosting Zrinjski in the UEFA Conference League knockout round second leg on Friday morning. The quick turnaround is far from ideal, and there will be a few tired legs in the away camp. I’m confident Man Utd will take full advantage and strengthen their bid for a place in the top four and next term’s UCL.
Man Utd played two home matches in February, beating Fulham by the odd goal in five, before piling pressure on Tottenham with a 2-0 victory. Palace took four points from their two away matches last month, drawing 1-1 at the City Ground and beating Brighton 1-0. United are the only unbeaten team in the EPL since Boxing Day, also banking the most points.
Tip: Man Utd win @ 1.57 (bet365)
Bet explanation: Man Utd must defeat Crystal Palace for the second time this season.
Arsenal vs Chelsea, Monday, 3:30am AEDT
We round things off in style with another explosive London derby. The Emirates Stadium provides the backdrop as Arsenal welcome Chelsea. The home team are top of the league and betting favourites to hold their position. The visitors are fifth in the pecking order and bring a long unbeaten run, winning four and drawing two of their previous six EPL games.
The updated head-to-head stats available on the Flashscore app show these rivals have met three times already this season. There has been very little between the clubs in each game. They drew 1-1 at Stamford Bridge in the league before Arsenal won 3-2 in the EFL Cup first leg, and 1-0 at this stadium in the second leg. That explains why Arsenal are favourites.
Sticking with the H2H, Arsenal won their last four home games against Chelsea. You can trace that purple patch back to May 2023. In that time, Mikel Arteta’s side have treated fans to 3-1 and 5-0 victories over the Blues, before a pair of 1-0 wins in their last two. I expect another tight affair, but we stick with the leaders who are in great form and playing at home.
Tip: Arsenal win @ 1.60 (bet365)
Bet explanation: You’ll beat the bookies if Arsenal score a home win over Chelsea.
Discover the Best Betting Bonuses
If you're looking to take advantage of the Premier League matches for your bets, Flashscore is here to help. On our betting bonuses page, you'll find some of the best promotions on the market.
The odds, correct at the time of publication, are subject to change.