Mere

Wales heading into Italy clash desperate to stop winless run reaching 500 days

Gatland is under enormous pressure ahead of the trip to Rome
Gatland is under enormous pressure ahead of the trip to RomeFILIPPO MONTEFORTE / AFP
If you rewind your calendar to 16 months ago, Wales were determinedly preparing for a Rugby World Cup quarter-final against Argentina which they were largely expected to win. Italy, on the other hand, were licking their wounds on the airplane home after successive maulings at the hands of New Zealand and France saw them limp out of the tournament at the pool stage.

How, then, have we arrived in Rome this week with a despairing Wales side needing to beat an ever-improving Italian team just to avoid extending their Test losing streak to over 500 days?

Wales' run of defeats begins in Marseille

On the 7th of October, 2023, Wales beat Georgia 43-19 to progress as comfortable top seeds in Pool C, having hammered Eddie Jones' Wallabies to the tune of 40-6 earlier in the campaign.

Warren Gatland's side were ranked seventh in their world at the time - one place ahead of Argentina - and things appeared bright. Win in Marseille and Wales would be in the semi-finals in Paris. But things didn't quite go to plan, and the Pumas ran out relatively comfortable victors to book their place in the last four.

It was not a seismic shock that Wales lost that quarter-final, but you would have been given favourable odds if you had predicted that that defeat would end up being the catalyst for nearly a year and a half of Test losses that would stretch from October 2023 all the way to the 2025 Six Nations. When Wales run onto the field at Stadio Olimpico on Saturday, it will have been 490 days since that last Test victory against Georgia.

Wales lost each match in the 2024 Six Nations; albeit three of those losses were by three points or fewer. But the loss to Italy in the final round was particularly difficult to swallow as it had come in Cardiff.

Then came a one-off Test against the world champion Springboks at Twickenham ahead of a two-Test summer tour of Australia. Another three losses. Wales had not been blown away in either Sydney or Melbourne, but it was still two defeats against a team they had easily dismantled in the World Cup not even 10 months previously.

A non-cap game against the Queensland Reds almost resulted in what would have been a truly disastrous reverse, but replacement scrum-half Kieran Hardy spared his countrymen's blushes with a try in the 79th minute to scrape a rare victory.

But then November arrived, and that's when the wheels really came off.

In the opening game of their Autumn Internationals campaign, Wales were 14-3 up after 22 minutes against Fiji, who had just seen star player Semi Radradra red-carded. Almost inconceivably, Wales blew that lead to eventually lose 24-19 against 14 men.

Then came Australia, who scored eight tries to win 52-20, and last up were the Springboks. Wales were not expected to win that last game of 2024, but when the defeat was confirmed in Cardiff, it meant Wales had completed a calendar year without a Test win for the first time since 1937.

This is a side that won the Six Nations in 2021, won a Grand Slam two years prior to that, and went into the 2019 Rugby World Cup ranked as the number one team in the world. Today they are ranked 11th.

Wales' recent problems are well-documented: financial challenges and a bafflingly shrinking talent pool in a nation where rugby is a religion. Things, it should be said, that are largely outside of the control of Gatland and his coaching staff.

There was a huge vacuum left by the experienced players such as Alun Wyn Jones, who moved on just before the last World Cup, leaving an incredibly young team to find their feet without many established heads around them.

But make no mistake, the problems on the field - where Gatland does have a direct influence - are the biggest concern right now, because without some victories to bring the fans back, the financial turmoil will prove impossible to rectify.

That's why Rome is such an important fixture for Gatland's side. Not only because of what came before it, but what will come after it: Ireland, Scotland and England. Ireland are looking for a third successive Six Nations title, Scotland pose an enormous threat at Murrayfield to any side, and England will be licking their lips at the prospect of playing this Welsh team in the final round.

If Wales don't beat Italy, they will be odds-on to head to Japan in the summer on the back of 17 straight Test defeats.

Gatland, speaking after his side's 43-0 loss in Paris in the opening round of the Six Nations on Friday night, did not play down the significance of this week's fixture.

"Next week becomes pretty important for us. We can't hide away from that. We need to get the monkey off our back," the Kiwi said.

What awaits Wales in Rome?

In stark contrast to Wales' woes in 2024, Gonzalo Quesada’s reign as the new head coach nearly began in somewhat perfect fashion as they lost by merely three points in last season's Six Nations opener against England, before going on to beat Scotland and Wales as well as draw with France.

A humbling at the hands of Ireland in Dublin was the only real black mark of their 2024 campaign, in which they rather cruelly finished fifth despite only losing two games.

A mixed summer tour saw the Azzurri beat Tonga and Japan but lose to Samoa, and in November they started their winter fixtures with a disappointingly big loss to Argentina.

However, they bounced back with a win against Georgia and then lost to the All Blacks by a more palatable scoreline of 29-11.

It all meant that Italy ended 2024 with five wins, five losses and a draw. Not anything to write home about in certain circles, but a decent return for a team that has perpetually faced calls to be axed from the Six Nations.

In terms of the head-to-head, Wales have historically had very few blips against Italy, having not lost to the Azzurri in the Italian capital since 2007. However, they have lost two of the last three Six Nations fixtures between the two countries, both in Cardiff.

In the last 16 months, Quesada has developed his side into a solid attacking threat capable of doing damage - which is especially concerning when you consider that Wales have conceded an average of 34 points in the 12 Tests since the World Cup.

The run of defeats is galling, but there is hope for this Wales side. They do have some talent at their disposal if not the depth, and the experience these players are developing in this excruciating period is certain to benefit them all in the long term. But they have to win in Rome if they are to give themselves and the fans hope that the long term is closer than it currently feels.

"For me, this game next week is the biggest in Welsh rugby for the last 15 or 20 years," Dan Biggar told ITV after the loss to France. "I’m not saying that light-heartedly. It’s a huge, huge match."

Time will tell how important Saturday's fixture ends up being. After all, lose to Italy and Wales could still beat Ireland in Cardiff. Lose to Ireland and they could still beat Scotland at Murrayfield. But lose all three, and the old Welsh adage of "as long as we beat the English, we don't care" will be tested to its fullest degree. 

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