England buck the trend to finish in style
Since the 2023 World Cup, England has had a problem with closing out games against tier-one opposition. Late leads have evaporated more easily than they were established, leaving Steve Borthwick repeatedly having to field post-match questions about the mental resolve of his players.
When Louis Bielle-Biarrey scored a try to give France the lead at Twickenham on Saturday with a little more than five minutes remaining, Borthwick’s black book of stock answers on the “fine margins” of Test rugby was getting dusted down.
However, this time England were to spare their coach, Elliot Daly sat neatly on the shoulder of Fin Smith to burst through a midfield gap and end England’s run of disappointing finishes.
England’s results against tier one opponents since their World Cup campaign ended in France have not often gone their way, but only twice have they lost by more than one score. Their 2024 Six Nations ended with three wins and two losses, with a points difference of minus five after five matches.
Two Tests in New Zealand were lost by a single score, as was their first Test of the autumn against the All Blacks. They lost to the Wallabies by five and the Springboks by nine - the biggest losing margin in the last 16 months. While England have some way to go, they haven’t been far off.
Whether or not this will be the springboard for more cohesion and better results remains to be seen, but either way Borthwick will be relieved to have avoided another bout of what-if questions.
England’s win reignites the Six Nations
After the first round of fixtures, there was a danger of the tournament sleepwalking into an everything-hinges-on-one-game conclusion in the penultimate weekend in Dublin. After Ireland had beaten England, it was largely looking like the round four match between Ireland and France at the Aviva would determine the trophy’s destination in the middle of March, with no other team likely to deflect its course.
But with England’s win, we now have games that mean more; Scotland will have more of a say as they look to topple France and England and bounce back from their disappointing showing against Ireland on Sunday. While nobody expects Italy to be going for a title tilt, their impressive performances in the opening two rounds will have other teams on notice.
The tournament is better for the unpredictability that has been thrown into the mix by that victory, and that unpredictability will no doubt ensure that there are more surprises to come in this season’s Championship.
Ireland show their class as Scotland fall short again
With that being said, Ireland are still the team to beat in this tournament. A beatable team if you get the recipe right, but like with most recipes the outcome easily becomes a flop if you get just a few things wrong.
So it proved for Scotland, who are developing into one of the better teams in Europe but showed at Murrayfield over the weekend that they still have some way to go before they are in the same league of consistency as Ireland.
We saw glimpses of it. When Duhan van der Merwe was sent to the bin, it ignited his team-mates into a flurry of ferocious defensive work; twice holding up ball carriers over the line. In the end, Ireland - one of the most well-drilled teams in the so-called red zone - were only able to score three points with a man advantage.
But Scotland’s resolve was not able to endure. Ireland are relentless, and slowly chipped away at the enthusiasm of the hosts as well at their crowd by winning the small battles at the breakdown and in open play to eventually squeeze them out of contention.
Scotland is a good team; their games against England and France will be closely fought, but they need to find the gears above and beyond emotion if they are to win a first-ever Six Nations title.
For Ireland, they’ve seen off two challengers so far and one big one awaits, but the reason they are vying for a third title in as many years is down to the fact they won’t wait until the French arrive before they put in performances consistent with their best.
Italy get familiar with favourites tag
While a lot of chat in Rome on Saturday night was around the demise of Welsh rugby, credit must first go to the Italians for the way they navigated 80 minutes of Test rugby as favourites and came away looking accomplished.
There won’t have been many times in the Six Nations era when the Azzurri had a target on their back as the team in the ascendency, and the Italian public appeared nervous about what that might do to a team that loves to play with underdog abandon.
They needn’t have worried. A few wobbles, a few knock-ons and a few missed kicks are the nature of the game; what was evident and far more important, was the number of small battles the Italians were able to win along the way.
This was not the best Welsh team they have faced or indeed will ever face, but it was a Welsh team desperate to win and Italy held their opponents at arm’s length with calm and poise to come away with the victory.
Gonzalo Quesada needs to ensure his side can perform at that level consistently throughout the tournament, but do not forget that this is an Italian team who only lost twice in the last Six Nations. They have gone a long way to eradicate the conversations about them lowering the standard of the tournament.
Wales crunching the numbers as their miserable run continues
It doesn’t seem that long ago that Warren Gatland’s sensational return to Welsh rugby was confirmed. In December 2022, the man who had overseen a golden period for Wales before departing with a hearty wave had made an incredible u-turn to head back to the Principality for another dose.
“There is little time for sentiment, professional sport is all about preparation, values and results,” Gatland said as he got his second term underway in Cardiff.
Unfortunately for the 61-year-old, those results have not materialised and now the WRU has a financial decision rather than a rugby one to make.
It’s unlikely that Gatland will turn this team into a winning team in the next 24 months, which is when preparations will expect to be near enough complete ahead of the the 2027 Rugby World Cup.
The way things look, with Wales now 12th in the world and due to receive a very unfavourable draw at that tournament in Australia as a result, the damage appears to already making a dent in their campaign despite it being so far away.
The board therefore now have a pressing decision to undertake: sack Gatland now and take the not-insignificant financial hit of a payout in the hope that someone can come in and turn things around, or stick with him and hope that the results don’t continue to slide - and with it, the interest in the professional game in Wales.
Gatland himself is not responsible for the retirement of a host of players from that golden era. He’s not the one who throws forward passes or misses tackles, but his own words ring true: without the results, the board cannot allow sentiment to overrule the need for results in what is an increasingly perilous position for the 2021 champions.