Penrith's dynasty will continue
Penrith will extend Ivan Cleary's 2020s dynasty even further with their fifth premiership in seven years.
It has been obvious since Round 1 that Penrith have had their eye on the first Sunday in October: 12 wins from their first 13 games set up their season (rectifying their slow start to 2025), and they stayed in first place until Round 24, with Tom Jenkins (30 tries) tying with Alex Johnston for the Ken Irvine Medal.
The Panthers’ finals experience is undeniable, and their Round 26 win against Canterbury showed they were preparing for September: they recorded a 40/43 set completion rate and took points whenever possible, with three Cleary penalty goals. The Panthers secured the minor premiership with a 38-10 win over the Wests Tigers in Round 27.
Speaking of Cleary, he has a chance to have the greatest individual season since Darren Lockyer in 2006: an Origin win (that finally silenced the ‘He can’t step up for NSW’ critics), a premiership, a Rugby League World Cup title, and maybe the Dally M and Clive Churchill Medal.
Penrith are nearly at full-strength heading into finals: Isaah Yeo is back with Mitch Kenny, and Paul Alamoti, Jack Cogger, and Izack Tago are likely to return during September.
The Warriors and the Sydney Roosters will be Penrith’s main challengers.
The Warriors earnt their top-two finish (despite a lot of disruption in the halves), but their wins against Newcastle and Manly Warringah raised some concerns: they conceded 32 points against a Knights side with 12 men for 68 minutes, and trailed Manly 12-4 and 30-24, with a Taine Tuaupiki hat-trick and a Chanel Harris-Tavita field goal pulling that game out of the fire.
The Warriors’ edge defence is a concern, with the Knights and Sea Eagles scoring most of their tries through the edges. As one of the most exciting attacking teams in the NRL, the Dolphins could exploit the Warriors’ defensive issues in the qualifying final.
The Warriors also need to learn from Canberra’s downfall last year: a minor premiership and two home finals seemed like the Raiders’ garden path to the Grand Final, but they lacked finals experience and the necessary composure under pressure.
With this in mind, James Fisher-Harris’ experience earnt during Penrith’s four-premiership run could be vital.
Easts’ premiership hopes seemed to take a hit when Sam Walker went down against Redcliffe (Round 26), but Hugo Savala and Daly Cherry-Evans (who won the 2011 premiership with Manly in his first season) could take them to their first Grand Final since 2019, and Daniel Tupou’s return adds to the scoring threats with the unpredictable Mark Nawaqanitawase.
Easts bought DCE for September footy, and now we’ll see if he’ll use his experience when it matters and overcome Walker’s absence. Even if they lose the qualifying final to Penrith, the Roosters will play the winner of Cronulla and North Queensland in the semi-final.
It could be a Warriors vs Roosters preliminary final, with the Warriors’ home ground advantage enough to get them into the Grand Final against Penrith.
Redcliffe and South Sydney will be dark horses: they’ll score plenty of points, but defence will be an issue (the Dolphins have conceded 21 points/game and Souths 24 points/game). Both will be preliminary final contenders as the Rabbitohs shouldn’t need to leave Sydney and the Dolphins will play one final at Lang Park.
The Rabbitohs’ goodwill over everything they’ve done for Jai Arrow, and the Dolphins making their first finals series, will make either side sentimental favourites for neutral fans, along with the Warriors.
Newcastle, Cronulla-Sutherland, and North Queensland will struggle to get past the semi-finals.
Andrew Webster will be Dally M Coach of the Year
While the Warriors won’t win the NRL premiership, they’ll get a consolation prize with Andrew Webster’s second Dally M Coach of the Year award (first winning in 2023).
There’s a valid argument for Justin Holbrook: he’s taken Newcastle from wooden spooners to finals, with the Knights almost doubling last year’s points tally (338 in 2025, 633 in 2026).
And it’s a vindication for Holbrook after his sudden exit from the Gold Coast Titans in 2023, with Holbrook one of the few coaches to take the Titans to the finals.
A second Coach of the Year award will be a deserved recognition of Webster’s work in New Zealand.
It would be appropriate if the Warriors play Penrith in the Grand Final: we’ll have a ‘Master vs Apprentice’ match up between Ivan Cleary and Webster, as Webster spent two seasons as Panthers assistant coach (2021 and 2022) after previous assistant gigs at the Warriors and Wests Tigers.
There’s no doubt that working under Ivan – and being part of the early days of the Panthers’ dominance - allowed Webster to find immediate success in New Zealand, making a preliminary final in 2023 and an elimination final in 2025.
Webster will be at the Wahs until the end of 2032 (passing Ivan Cleary as their longest-serving coach), so he’ll surely win the club’s first premiership in the next few seasons.
The NRL goes Wild(card)!
Looking to capitalise on the AFL’s success, it is looking increasingly likely that the NRL will have a top-ten finals/Wildcard Weekend in 2027.
Peter ‘the Man of Feathers’ V’landys loves taking any opportunity to rub the AFL’s noses in it when the NRL succeeds. But the AFL getting one over the NRL with the successful innovation that was their Wildcard Round would irritate him even more.
While it makes more sense to wait until the NRL expands to 20 teams (likely to be by 2029), the AFL’s successful Wildcard Weekend (172,000 spectators and 7.4 million viewers across both games) will motivate V’landys to introduce the NRL's own version in 2027, matching the AFL’s ten out of 18 team finals ratio.
This would have been the hypothetical top-ten in 2026...
TOP SIX: Penrith, NZ Warriors, The Dolphins, Sydney Roosters, Cronulla-Sutherland, South Sydney
WILDCARDS: Newcastle, North Queensland, Manly Warringah, Melbourne
This would put the Wildcard Weekend games as Knights v Storm and Cowboys v Sea Eagles.
While you can argue a top ten rewards mediocre teams who don’t deserve to play finals, realistically the Wildcard sides aren’t getting past the elimination final. On the contrary, it’d make a wonderful story if one of those teams makes a Grand Final. In 1998, Canterbury-Bankstown came from ninth (in a top-ten finals system) to make the Grand Final against Brisbane, beating St. George, North Sydney, Newcastle, and Parramatta.
One issue to introducing the Wildcard Weekend is timing: the AFL had the advantage of a pre-finals bye to fit the Wildcard games into, while the NRL schedule is already packed.
One solution is to scrap the Pre-Season Challenge (including the prizemoney and confusing bonus points system): have one weekend of NRL trials (all broadcast on Fox League/Kayo) and give teams the option to play another trial against NSW or QLD Cup sides. This will create room for the Wildcard Weekend.
T\he top six teams having a Wildcard Weekend bye may not solve the issues around teams resting players at the end of the regular season, as players who need a break can potentially have two weeks off instead of one.
The Wildcard Weekend still has more merit that than the ridiculous third vs fourth play-off game on Grand Final weekend, or the poorly received kick-off trial, and V'landys won’t waste any time introducing the expanded finals system.
Andrew Pelechaty is a freelance rugby league writer and has written for various rugby league websites since 2004. He has been the Web Content Editor at Rugby League Zone since 2017 and began producing NRL content for Flashscore in 2025. You can read all of his content here and contact him on LinkedIn.
