Can Ireland be the first team in 32 years to defeat NZ at Eden Park?

Match News and Current Form

New Zealand are second behind South Africa on points difference in the Southern Hemisphere standings after a very convincing 30-point win over Italy last round. It extended their imposing home record during this four-year World Cup cycle to 12 wins from 14 matches, which includes a perfect seven wins from seven against Northern Hemisphere opposition. Their home form becomes only more formidable at the almighty Eden Park, considered a ‘graveyard’ for so many visiting nations, where draws with South Africa (1994) and the Lions (2017) were the only two of their last 52 games at the iconic venue were not won.

New Zealand head coach Dave Rennie understandably reverted to what he believes to be his best possible available squad for this high-profile clash, but to the surprise of many, it did not include 145-gamer Beauden Barrett who is one of three players in the All Blacks’ 34-man Nations Championship squad yet to play. Ruben Love got the nod at number ten again, whilst Quinn Tupaea and Josh Moorby came into the team along with Josh Lord and Patrick Tuipulotu.

Ireland are amongst those nations to have never defeated the All Blacks at Eden Park despite having eight attempts, four of them in this century. There was a 2011 World Cup group stage win over Australia at the venue that is a long distant memory, but their groundbreaking 2-1 series win in New Zealand four years ago under current head coach Andy Farrell should serve as great inspiration for making history here. Whilst their defending against Australia (W 33-31) and Japan (W 36-20) left a little to be desired, two bonus point wins has them three points clear at the top of the Northern Hemisphere standings and sets a good platform for what Farrell says will need to be “the performance of our lives” if they are to remain unbeaten.

The visitors have declared a clean bill of health after regaining both Jeremy Loughman and Rob Baloucoune from injury. Baloucoune immediately slots back in as one of the two starting wingers, with Jimmy O’Brien moving from right wing to left to accommodate his return, whilst Tadhg Beirne gets another start after captaining the team in Newcastle last weekend. It’ll be a third consecutive start for O’Brien as well as the quartet of Stuart McCloskey, Jack Conan, James Ryan and Tom O'Toole.

Head-to-Head History

New Zealand are on a three-game winning streak that started at the 2023 World Cup (28-24) and ended in Chicago last year (26-13). Ireland won their last series in New Zealand 2-1 with a game one defeat coming in Auckland. 

Hot Stats and Streaks

New Zealand won each of their last six games in which they conceded the opening try.

The second half was the highest scoring half in each of New Zealand’s last six matches.

Ireland lost three of their last four games as betting outsiders.

Ireland failed to cover the spread in five of their seven matches this year.

Key Players to Watch and Missing Players

There’s no stopping winger Will Jordan, who at age 28 is now New Zealand’s leading all-time try scorer, having already amassed five Nations Championship tries. Ireland regained the services of Rob Baloucoune, who was in tremendous form prior to a hamstring injury with a try in five of his last seven games for Ulster or Ireland.

Leroy Carter was an early exit from the game against Italy, which Fehi Fineanganofo missed entirely due to his own shoulder injury. 

Click here to view the match squads and latest team news.

Betting Analysis

Ireland’s slightly underwhelming form suggests New Zealand could cover a -9.5 point handicap.

Aaron Murphy has been with Flashscore since 2018 and, as the founding editor of the Australian newsdesk, has reported on-site at several major events in Melbourne including the Australian Open, State of Origin, A-League, NBL and international cricket. You can read his pieces here and contact him on X or LinkedIn.